Endemic Epidemic Pandemic 101

Endemic, epidemic and pandemic are terms used to describe various infections in a population.

Endemic

An infection is said to be endemic in a population when the infection rate is constantly maintained at a baseline level in a geographic area year after year.

So we can say chickenpox is endemic in the UK as it's a common infection every year with relatively stable infection rates.

Epidemic

If there is a sudden increase in the infection rate of a disease in a given population it is deemed to be an epidemic, for example tuberculosis was considered to be almost eradicated in the UK by the 1980's but recent migration by some individuals with the condition has seen a spike in cases that we would call an epidemic.

Pandemic

When a disease is not localised to a specific area but has spread around the world it is known as a pandemic so an infection will suddenly appear in a new area, these can be serious as people are exposed to something their immune system has not encountered before.

These three terms can be used in conjunction depending on how common an illness is, how widely spread and if there has been any sudden rise in the number of infections.

The covid 19 virus that originated in China is new so obviously the large rise in the number of people infected makes it an epidemic, But now that it is being transmitted to people with no connection to China and is spreading globally we can say it is a pandemic epidemic.

The information released by the CCDC (Chinese Centre for Disease Control) suggests that most people that are infected only have mild symptoms and that complications and fatality is more common in the elderly.

This and the high transmission rate means covid 19 may become a regular seasonal infection as most people will contract it and survive to infect others, as we do with other common corona viruses, albeit a much more deadly one for the elderly and those with certain preconditions.

This would make it endemic and this is what the Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch said recently here

So as with all of these viruses the WHO (World Health Organisation) advice is the same, maintain good hygiene practices and avoid contact with potentially infected people.

Be prepared to self isolate and for the economic downturn that this is going to cause, China still has not returned to full production and this will affect the worlds economies and our interconnected global supply chains.

Take care

Roo

COVID-19 global pandemic

The novel corona virus designated COVID-19 is now a global pandemic with several cases of people being infected that have no connection to China, click here for real time tracker.

The new South Korean and Italian hotspots have prompted panic buying that cleared shop shelves as the unprepared masses rushed to ready themselves for extended self isolation.

Thousands queued for hours to buy protective masks, ironically increasing their risk of exposure by being in close proximity to others for a period of time.

What to do?

• Store at least a months supply of food in your home in case you have to self isolate

• Avoid people as much as practically possible, stay away from crowded areas known for transmitting infections such as public transport in particular

• Maintain high level of hygiene, be able to sanitise your home and potentially decontaminate yourself when you return from any trips outside and have appropriate PPE (respirator, goggles,gloves and overalls for high risk areas) 

The incubation period appears to be several days during which patients are unaware that they're infected so in turn are passing the virus to others.

For the vast majority of people that become infected they will go on to fully recover but it can cause severe symptoms and death particularly to those with underlying conditions so the death rate appears to be much worse for the elderly who are more likely to have these conditions.

Even those at low risk should do all they can to avoid infection in order to prevent its transmission as we all know people that fall into the higher risk categories...


Take care
Roo

Should you buy a gas mask?

A quick google search for prepping or preppers will give loads of image results showing people wearing gas masks.

It's an image that's been popularised in video games and film with dystopian futures and as such is often dismissed as a doomsday prepper cliche but are there practical reasons for owning gas masks?

House fires are thankfully less common than they used to be but are still a major risk and its usually the smoke that kills people not the heat.

Long before the fire has used all the oxygen in a room or people are badly burnt they are disabled by the toxic smoke house fires produce, a gas mask in this situation could help you evacuate from a burning building in time by filtering the available air.

Accidental chemical spills in industrial facilities or from transport accidents can release poisonous fumes. These noxious clouds can envelop your home or workplace if it is near to the facility or scene of the accident on major roads and railways used to bulk transport chemicals.

Often the official advice in these situations is to stay put and close windows and doors but a gas mask would allow you to safely evacuate from the affected area or ensure your survival if you do stay put.

Large scale civil disobedience protests can prompt authorities to try to disperse crowds with CS gas which irritates the eyes and lungs.

A gas mask protects you from these effects so that you can leave the area quickly and safely particularly if you have any lung related medical issues.

Military masks are often rated for CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear) protection so are effective protection against airborne viruses and bacteria to evacuate the area so you can be decontaminated before you're infected. This is generally overkill but is another potential use albeit an extreme one.

Modern gas masks can be quite expensive, but you can buy ex military surplus ones quite reasonably and whilst the filters may have expired you can often buy new filters that will fit these masks but you may need to also buy suitable adapters such as I did here with this Yugoslavian / Serbian M1 gas mask;

So gas masks don't have to be expensive, or purely the preserve of the stars of doomsday preppers.

They can help you in several relatively common situations if you ensure they have a good seal and suitable working filters (old respirator filters will probably be effective slightly beyond their expiry date but for many common masks there are commercially available replacements).

Therefore in my opinion respirators are worth having, particularly old military ones as they also look pretty cool too if you like collecting militaria as I do...

Take care
Roo

Prepping for COVID-19 the novel corona virus

The 2019 virus originating from Wuhan in China is a newly discovered corona virus.

Corona viruses are quite common often resulting in what is known as the common cold or flu that infect the respiratory system resulting in coughing, sneezing, fever and possibly breathing difficulties leading to pneumonia.

Most people that contract these common corona virus infections make full recoveries but it can be lethal for those with poor immune systems such as the very young and elderly or if there is an underlying health condition like diabetes, cancer and chronic lung disease who develop complications.

Covid-19 is a new virus thought to have crossed over into humans from a contaminated meat market in Wuhan that appears to cause severe symptoms in many more people than than is normal.

Much like the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV) corona virus identified in 2003 also originating from China or  Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012 did.

The virus is spread in the droplets we exhale that either directly enter a new host through inhalation and splashing into contact with our eyes or by landing on surfaces that others then touch and transfer to their mouth or eyes.

As such the main way to prevent infection is to maintain high hygiene levels by properly washing hands and disinfecting surfaces people make contact with and where possible avoiding people as they may be infected.

Disposable PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) should be worn when in known infected areas covering the whole body but as a minimum wear gloves, eye protection and a suitable respirator (specified N95 or better, fitted properly!).

Care should be taken when removing and disposing of these as they should be considered contaminated after use, place into plastic bags taking care not to squeeze them down which could force air out that could carry the infected droplets.

This virus is spreading rapidly thanks to international air travel of infected people so stock up now in order to self isolate at home if it reaches your area for a minimum of fourteen days.

As well as food, water and medicines buy and store products to ensure your hygiene;

PPE
Hand sanitiser
Plastic waste bags
Plastic sheeting and duct tape
Bleach and cleaning fluids

I covered this in a recent video on YouTube "Prepping for the corona virus";

Take care,
Roo

DIY wood stove flue

In order to use my wood stove in a tent I wanted something to protect the canvas from getting scorched by the flue.

I've seen several on Amazon but all are around £40 or more but when Lidl was selling these bird feeders for £3.99 I decided to make my own.

If you want to do similar here is a Amazon link for the type of bird feeders I used;

I began by removing the lid and the hanging bail for use later with a pair of pliers...

Next to open the bottom I drilled a hole so I could use tin snips to open it up leaving approximately 1cm overhang.

Again using the tin snips I cut the over hang to form little flaps that I could fold over the bottom ring at the base of the fatball holder.

I repeated this on a second bird feeder and used rebar tying wire to tie the two together.

Lastly I straightened the two bail hangers to form hooks and reattached them so it could be hung from the spark arrester on the flue.

The finished product looks pretty good I think for £8

If you want to watch the video of how I did this click here and if you like it please give it a thumbs up and consider subscribing 👍

Take care
Roo